Part7为什么初创公司最初的商业计划不那么重要作者Marc Andreessen编辑Rework阅览室整理A startup's initial business plan doesn't matter that much,because it is veryhard to determine up front exactly what combination of product and market willresult in success.初创公司最初的商业计划并不那么重要，因为很难预先确定产品和市场的具体组合会带来成功。By definition you will be doing something new,in a world that is a veryuncertain place.You are simply probably not going to know whether your initialidea will work as a product and a business,or not.And you will probably haveto rapidly evolve your plan-possibly every aspect of it-as you go根据定义，你将在一个非常不确定的世界中做一些新的事情。你可能根本不知道你最初的想法是否会作为产品和业务发挥作用。而且你可能必须在进行过程中快速改进你的计划—可能是它的每个方面。(The military has a saying that expresses the same concept-"No battle planever survives contact with the enemy."In this case,your enemy is the world atlarge.)(军方有句俗话表达了同样的概念一"没有任何作战计划能够在与敌人接触后幸存下来。"在这种情况下，你的敌人就是整个世界。)It is therefore much more important for a startup to aggressively seek out a bigmarket,and product/market fit within that market,once the startup is up andrunning,than it is to try to plan out what you are going to do in great detailahead of time.因此，对于初创公司来说，一旦初创公司成立并开始运营，积极寻找一个大市场以及适合该市场的产品/市场比尝试规划你将在未来做什么更重要。提前详细说明。Pat7为什么初创公司最初的商业计划不那么重要The history of successful startups is quite clear on this topic.关于这个主题，成功初创公司的历史非常清楚。Normally I would simply point to Microsoft,which started as a programmingtools company before IBM all but forced Bill Gates to go into the operatingsystem business,or Oracle,which was a consultancy for the ClA before LarryEllison decided to productize the relational database,or Intel,which was amuch smaller company focused on the memory chip market until the Japaneseonslaught of the mid-80's forced Andy Grove to switch focus to CPUs.通常我会简单地提到微软，它是一家编程工具公司，在BM之前几乎迫使比尔盖茨进入操作系统业务，或者是甲骨文，在拉里·埃里森决定将关系数据库产品化之前，它是中央情报局的一家咨询公司，或者英特尔，这是一家规模小得多的公司，专注于内存芯片市场，直到80年代中期日本的冲击迫使安迪·格罗夫(Andy Grove)将重点转向CPU.However,I've recently been reading Randall Stross's marvelous book aboutThomas Edison,The Wizard of Menlo Park.然而，我最近正在阅读兰德尔·斯特罗斯(Randall Stross)关于托马斯·爱迪生(Thomas Edison)的精彩著作《门洛帕克的巫师》(The Wizard of MenloPark)。Edison's first commercially viable breakthrough invention was the phonograph-the forerunner to what you kids know as the record player,the turntable,theWalkman,the CD player,and the IPod.Edison went on,of course,to becomeone of the greatest inventors and innovators of all time.爱迪生第一个商业上可行的突破性发明是留声机，它是你们孩子们所知的电唱机、转盘、随身听、CD播放器和Pod的先驱。当然，爱迪生后来成为有史以来最伟大的发明家和创新者之一。As our story begins,Edison,an unknown inventor running his own startup,isfocused on developing better hardware for telegraph operators.He isparticularly focused on equipment for telegraph operators to be able to sendvoice messages over telegraph lines.Pat7为什么初创公司最初的商业计划不那么重要正如我们的故事开始的那样，爱迪生是一位不知名的发明家，经营着自己的初创公司，专注于为电报运营商开发更好的硬件。他特别关注电报操作员能够通过电报线发送语音消息的设备。Cue the book:提示书：The day after Edison had noted the idea for recording voicemessages received by a telegraphy office,he came up with avariation.That evening,on 18 July 1877,when [his lab's]midnight dinner had been consumed...[Edison]turnedaround to face [his assistant Charles Batchelor]and casuallyremarked,"Batch,if we had a point on this,we could make arecord of some material which we could afterwards pullunder the point,and it would give us the speech back."在爱迪生注意到记录电报局收到的语音消息的想法的第二天，他想出了一个变体。那天晚上，1877年7月18日，当[他的实验室]的午夜晚餐吃完时.[爱迪生]转身面对[他的助手查尔斯·巴彻勒，漫不经心地说：“巴奇，如果我们对此有观点的话，我们可以记录一些材料，然后我们可以将其拉到要点下，然后它就会将演讲内容返回给我As soon as Edison had pointed it out,it seemed so obvious that they did notpause to appreciate...the suggestion.Everyone jumped up to rig a test...within an hour,they had the gizmo set up on the table...Edison sat down,leaned into the mouthpiece...[and]delivered the stock phrase the lab usedto test telephone diaphragms:"Mary had a little lamb."当爱迪生指出这一点时，它似乎是如此明显，以至于他们没有停下来欣赏…这个建议。每个人都跳起来进行测试.不到一个小时，他们就把小玩意放在桌子上…爱迪生坐下来，靠在话筒上…[并]说出了实验室用来测试电话的常用短语隔膜："玛丽有一只小羊羔。”...Batchelor reinserted the beginning of the [strip on which the phrase hadbeen recorded]...out came "ary ad ell am.""It was not fine talking,"Batchelor recalled,"but the shape of it was there."The men celebrated withPat7为什么初创公司最初的商业计划不那么重要