Part2当风险投资家说"不"时作者Marc Andreessen三编辑Rework阅览室整理This post is about what to do between when the VCs say "no"to funding yourstartup,and when you either change their minds or find some other path.这篇文章是关于当风险投资家对你的初创公司投资说“不"和你改变主意或找到其他路径时该怎么做。I'm going to assume that you've done all the basics:developed a plan anda pitch,decided that venture financing is right for you and you are right forventure financing,lined up meetings with properly qualified VCs,and madeyour pitch.我假设您已经完成了所有基础知识：制定计划和推介，确定风险融资适合您并且您适合进行风险融资，安排与合格风险投资人的会议，并进行推介。And the answer has come back and it's "no".答案回来了，是“不”。One "no"doesn't mean anything-the VC could just be having a bad day,or shehad a bad experience with another company in your category,or she had a badexperience with another company with a similar name,or she had a badexperience with another founder who kind of looks like you,or her MercedesSLR McLaren's engine could have blown up on the freeway that morning-itcould be anything.Go meet with more VCs.一个“不"并不意味着任何事情一风投可能只是今天过得很糟糕，或者她在你所在类别的另一家公司有过糟糕的经历，或者她在另一家名字相似的公司有过糟糕的经历，或者她有过一次糟糕的经历。与另一位看起来像你的创始人的糟糕经历，或者她的梅赛德斯SLR迈凯伦的引擎可能在那天早上在高速公路上爆炸-可能是任何事情。去见更多的风险投资家。Part2当风险投资家说"不"时If you meet with three VCs and they all say "no",it could just be a bigcoincidence.Go meet with more VCs.如果你会见三位风险投资家，他们都说“不”，这可能只是一个很大的巧合。去见更多的风险投资家。If you meet with five,or six,or eight VCs and they all say no,it's not acoincidence如果你遇到五、六、八个风险投资家，他们都说不，这不是巧合。There is something wrong with your plan.你的计划有问题。Or,even if there isn't,there might as well be,because you're still not gettingfunded.或者，即使没有，也可能有，因为你仍然没有得到资助。Meeting with more VCs after a bunch have said no is probably a waste of time.Instead,retool your plan-which is what this post is about.在一群人拒绝之后与更多的风险投资家会面可能是浪费时间。相反，重新调整你的计划—一这就是这篇文章的主题。But first,lay the groundwork to go back in later.但首先，为稍后返回奠定基础。It's an old-and true-cliche that VCs rarely actually say "no"-more often theysay "maybe",or "not right now",or "my partners aren't sure",or "that'sinteresting,let me think about it".这是一个古老而真实的陈词滥调，风险投资家很少真正说“不”，他们更常说”也许”，或"现在不行”，或“我的合作伙伴不确定”，或“这很有趣，让我想想"关于它”。Part2当风险投资家说"不"时They do that because they don't want to invest in your company given thecurrent facts,but they want to keep the door open in case the facts change.他们这样做是因为鉴于当前的事实，他们不想投资你的公司，但他们希望保持大门敞开，以防事实发生变化。And that's exactly what you want-you want to be able to go back to them witha new set of facts,and change their minds,and get to "yes".这正是你想要的一你希望能够带着一组新的事实回到他们身边，改变他们的想法，并接受“是”。So be sure to take "no"gracefully-politely ask them for feedback(which theyprobably won't give you,at least not completely honestly-nobody likes callingsomeone else's baby ugly-believe me,I've done it),thank them for their time,and ask if you can call them again if things change.所以一定要优雅地接受“不”一礼貌地询问他们的反馈（他们可能不会给你反馈，至少不会完全诚实一没有人喜欢说别人的孩子丑一相信我，我已经做到了)，谢谢并询问如果情况发生变化，您是否可以再次给他们打电话。Trust me-they'd much rather be saying "yes"than "no"-they need all thegood investments they can get.相信我一他们更愿意说“是"而不是“不”一他们需要所有可以获得的优质投资。Second,consider the environment.其次，考虑环境。Being told "no"by VCs in 1999 is a lot different than being told "no"in 2002.1999年被风投说“不"与2002年被风投说“不"有很大不同。If you were told "no"in 1999,I'm sure you're a wonderful person and you havehuge potential and your mother loves you very much,but your plan really wasseriously flawed.如果你在1999年被告知“不”，我确信你是一个很棒的人，你有巨大的潜力，你的母亲也非常爱你，但你的计划确实存在严重缺陷。Part2当风险投资家说"不"时If you were told"no"in 2002,you probably actually were the next Google,butmost of the VCs were hiding under their desks and they just missed it.如果你在2002年被告知“不"，你实际上可能就是下一个谷歌，但大多数风险投资家都躲在办公桌下，他们只是错过了。In my opinion,we're now in a much more rational environment than either ofthose extremes-a lot of good plans are being funded,along with some badones,but not all the bad ones.在我看来，我们现在所处的环境比这两种极端情况都要理性得多一许多好的计划和一些坏的计划都得到了资助，但并不是所有的坏计划都得到了资助。I'll proceed under the assumption that we're in normal times.But if things gettruly euphoric or truly funereal again,the rest of this post will probably not bevery helpful-in either case.我将假设我们处于正常时期来继续进行。但如果事情再次变得真正令人欣喜或真正令人丧气，那么这篇文章的其余部分可能不会有太大帮助一无论哪种情况。Third,retool your plan.第三，重新调整你的计划。This is the hard part-changing the facts of your plan and what you are tryingto do,to make your company more fundable.这是最困难的部分一改变你的计划的事实和你想要做的事情，让你的公司更容易获得资金。To describe the dimensions that you should consider as you contemplateretooling your plan,let me introduce the onion theory of risk.为了描述您在考虑重组计划时应考虑的维度，让我介绍一下洋葱风险理论。If you're an investor,you look at the risk around an investment as if it's anonion.Just like you peel an onion and remove each layer in turn,risk in aPart2当风险投资家说"不"时startup investment comes in layers that get peeled away-reduced-one byone.如果您是投资者，您会像对待洋葱一样看待投资的风险。就像你剥洋葱并依次去除每一层一样，初创公司投资的风险来自于逐层剥去（减少）的风险。Your challenge as an entrepreneur trying to raise venture capital is to keeppeeling layers of risk off of your particular onion until the VCs say "yes"-untilthe risk in your startup is reduced to the point where investing in your startupdoesn't look terrifying and merely looks risky.作为一名试图筹集风险投资的企业家，你面临的挑战是不断剥离你的特定洋葱的风险层，直到风险投资家说“是”，直到你的初创公司的风险降低到投资你的初创公司看起来不那么困难的程度。很可怕，而且看起来很危险。What are the layers of risk for a high-tech startup?高科技初创企业的风险有哪些？It depends on the startup,but here are some of the common ones:这取决于启动情况，但以下是一些常见的：Founder risk-does the startup have the right founding team?A commonfounding team might include a great technologist,plus someone who can runthe company,at least to start.Is the technologist really all that?Is the businessperson capable of running the company?Is the business person missing fromthe team altogether?Is it a business person or business people with notechnologist,and therefore virtually unfundable?创始人风险一初创公司是否拥有合适的创始团队？一个共同的创始团队可能包括一名优秀的技术专家，以及能够管理公司的人，至少在开始时是这样。技术人员真的就是这样吗？商人有能力经营公司吗？团队中是否完全缺少业务人员？是商人还是没有技术专家的商人，因此实际上无法获得资助？Market risk-is there a market for the product (using the term product andservice interchangeably)?Will anyone want it?Will they pay for it?How muchwill they pay?How do we know?Part2当风险投资家说"不"时市场风险一产品是否有市场（产品和服务可互换使用）？有人想要吗？他们会为此付出代价吗？他们会付多少钱？我们怎么知道？Competition risk-are there too many other startups already doing this?Is thisstartup sufficiently differentiated from the other startups,and also differentiatedfrom any large incumbents?竞争风险一是否有太多其他初创公司已经这样做了？这家初创公司是否与其他初创公司有足够的区别，也与任何大型现有企业有区别？Timing risk-is it too early?Is it too late?时机风险一是否为时过早？是不是太晚了？Financing risk-after we invest in this round,how many additional rounds offinancing will be required for the company to become profitable,and what willthe dollar total be?How certain are we about these estimates?How do weknow?融资风险一我们投了这一轮之后，公司还需要多少轮融资才能盈利，总共是多少？我们对这些估计有多确定？我们怎么知道？Marketing risk-will this startup be able to cut through the noise?How muchwill marketing cost?Do the economics of customer acquisition-the cost toacquire a customer,and the revenue that customer will generate-work?营销风险一这家初创公司能否脱颖而出？营销费用是多少？获取客户的经济学（获取客户的成本以及客户将产生的收入)有效吗？Distribution risk-does this startup need certain distribution partners tosucceed?Will it be able to get them?How?(For example,this is a commonproblem with mobile startups that need deals with major mobile carriers tosucceed.)分销风险一这家初创公司是否需要某些分销合作伙伴才能成功？它能得到它们吗？如何？(例如，这是移动初创公司的一个常见问题，需要与主要移动运营商合作才能取得成功。)Part2当风险投资家说"不"时Technology risk-can the product be built?Does it involve rocket science-oran equivalent,like artificial intelligence or natural language processing?Arethere fundamental breakthroughs that need to happen?If so,how certain arewe that they will happen,or that this team will be able to make them?技术风险一产品能造出来吗？它是否涉及火箭科学或同等学科，如人工智能或自然语言处理？是否需要实现根本性突破？如果是这样，我们对它们会发生或者这个团队能够实现它们有多大把握？Product risk-even assuming the product can in theory be built,can this teambuild it?产品风险一即使假设理论上可以构建该产品，这个团队可以构建它吗？Hiring risk-what positions does the startup need to hire for in order to executeits plan?E.g.a startup planning to build a high-scale web service will need a VPof Operations-will the founding team be able to hire a good one?招聘风险一初创公司需要招聘哪些职位才能执行其计划？例如。一家计划建立大规模网络服务的初创公司将需要一名运营副总裁一创始团队能够聘请到一名优秀的运营副总裁吗？Location risk-where is the startup located?Can it hire the right talent in thatlocation?And will I as the VC need to drive more than 20 minutes in myMercedes SLR McLaren to get there?选址风险一初创公司位于哪里？它能在该地点雇佣到合适的人才吗？作为VC,我需要开着我的Mercedes SLR McLaren开车20多分钟才能到达那里吗？You know,when you stack up all these layers and look at the full onion,yourealize it's amazing that any venture investments ever get made.你知道，当你把所有这些层叠加起来并观察完整的洋葱时，你会意识到任何风险投资的实现都是令人惊奇的。What you need to do is take a hard-headed look at each of these risks-andany others that are specific to your startup and its category-and put yourselfin the VC's shoes:what could this startup do to minimize or eliminate enough ofthese risks to make the company fundable?Part2当风险投资家说"不"时你需要做的是冷静地审视每一个风险一以及任何其他特定于你的初创公司及其类别的风险一并设身处地为风险投资人着想：这家初创公司可以采取什么措施来最大程度地减少或消除风险这些风险能让公司获得融资吗？Then do those things.然后做那些事。This isn't very much fun,since it will probably involve making significantchanges to your plan,but look on the bright side:it's excellent practice forwhen your company ultimately goes public and has to file an S1 registrationstatement with the SEC,in which you have to itemize in huge detail everyconceivable risk and bad thing that could ever possibly happen to you,up toand including global warming.这不是很有趣，因为它可能会涉及对您的计划进行重大更改，但从好的方面来看：当您的公司最终上市并必须向SEC提交S1注册声明时，这是极好的做法，你必须详细列出每一个可能发生在你身上的风险和坏事，包括全球变暖。Some ideas on reducing risk:关于降低风险的一些想法：Founder risk-the tough one.If you're the technologist on a founding team witha business person,you have to consider the possibility that the VCs don't thinkthe business person is strong enough to be the founding CEO.Or vice versa,maybe they think the technologist isn't strong enough to build the product.Youmay have to swap out one or more founders,and/or add one or more founders.创始人风险一最严峻的风险。如果你是创始团队中的技术专家，团队中还有一位业务人士，那么你必须考虑风险投资家认为这位业务人士没有足够强大的能力担任创始首席执行官的可能性。反之亦然，也许他们认为技术人员不够强大，无法构建产品。您可能需要更换一名或多名创始人，和/或添加一名或多名创始人。I put this one right up front because it can be a huge issue and the odds ofsomeone being honest with you about it in the specific are not that high.我把这个问题放在前面，因为这可能是一个大问题，而且有人在具体问题上对你诚实的可能性并不高。Part2当风险投资家说"不"时Market risk-you probably need to validate the market,at a practical level.Sometimes more detailed and analytical market research will solve the problem,but more often you actually need to go get some customers to demonstrate thatthe market exists.Preferably,paying customers.Or at least credible prospectswho will talk to VCs to validate the market hypothesis.市场风险一您可能需要在实际层面上验证市场。有时更详细和更具分析性的市场研究可以解决问题，但更多时候你实际上需要去找一些客户来证明市场的存在。最好是付费客户。或者至少是可靠的前景，他们会与风险投资家交谈以验证市场假设。Competition risk-is your differentiation really sharp enough?Rethink this onefrom the ground up.Lots of startups do not have strong enough differentiationout of the gate,even after they get funded.If you don't have a really solid ideaas to how you're dramatically different from or advantaged over known andunknown competitors,you might not want to start a company in the first place.竞争风险一你的差异化真的足够清晰吗？从头开始重新思考这个问题。许多初创公司一开始就没有足够强大的差异化能力，即使在获得资金之后也是如此。如果你对自己与已知和未知的竞争对手有何显着不同或优势没有真正明确的想法，那么你可能一开始就不想创办一家公司。Two additional points on competition risk that founders routinely screw up inVC pitches:创始人在风险投资推介中经常搞砸的关于竞争风险的另外两点：Never,ever say that you have no competitors.That signals naivete.Greatmarkets draw competitors,and so if you really have no competition,you mustnot be in a great market.Even if you really believe you have no competitors,create a competitive landscape slide with adjacent companies in related marketsegments and be ready to talk crisply about how you are like and unlike thoseadjacent companies.永远、永远不要说你没有竞争对手。这表明天真。伟大的市场会吸引竞争者，所以如果你真的没有竞争，你就不可能进入一个伟大的市场。即使您确实相信自己没有竞争对手，也可以与相关细分市场中的相邻公司创建竞争格局幻灯片，并准备好清晰地谈论您与这些相邻公司的相似之处和不同之处。Part2当风险投资家说"不"时And never,ever say your market projections indicate you're going to be hugelysuccessful if you get only 2%of your (extremely large)market.That alsosignals naivete.If you're going after 2%of a large market,that means thepresumably larger companies that are going to take the other 98%are going tokill you.You have to have a theory for how you're going to get a significantlyhigher market share than 2%.(I pick 2%because that's the cliche,but if you'rea VC,you've probably heard someone use it.)永远不要说，你的市场预测表明，如果你只获得（非常大的）市场的2%，你就会取得巨大成功。这也表明了天真。如果你想要占据一个大市场的2%，这意味着那些想要占据其余98%市场的大公司将会杀死你。你必须有一个理论来说明如何获得明显高于2%的市场份额。(我选择2%，因为这是陈词滥调，但如果你是风险投资人，你可能听说过有人使用它。)Timing risk-the only thing to do here is to make more progress,anddemonstrate that you're not too early or too late.Getting customers in the bagis the most valuable thing you can do on this one.时机风险一这里唯一要做的就是取得更多进展，并证明你还不算太早或太晚。让客户满意是您在这方面可以做的最有价值的事情。Financing risk-rethink very carefully how much money you will need to raiseafter this round of financing,and try to change the plan in plausible ways torequire less money.For example,only serve Cristal at your launch party,andnot Remy Martin "Black Pearl"Louis XIll cognac.融资风险一仔细重新考虑本轮融资后需要筹集多少资金，并尝试以合理的方式改变计划以减少所需资金。例如，在您的发布会上只提供水晶，而不是人头马“黑珍珠"路易十三干邑。Marketing risk-first,make sure your differentiation is super-sharp,becausewithout that,you probably won't be able to stand out from the noise.营销风险一首先，确保你的差异化非常明显，因为如果没有这一点，你可能无法从噪音中脱颖而出。Part2当风险投资家说"不"时